A New Champ?
If you are like me, you believe the legitimate reigning single season home run champ is Roger Maris, the only man to hit more than 60 homers in a single season without the benefit of illegal performance enhancing drugs. There is a chance, reasonable if not strong, that the legitimate record will finally change hands this year, some 45 after Maris set it (onle 34 years elapsed between Ruth's 60 and Roger's 61). The new legitimate champ will be, may be, Ryan Howard of the Philadelphia Phillies. howard needs 9 to tie the record, 10 to break it, and it certainly won't be easy. But he could do it, and it would be kind of nice for perhaps the most dismal baseball tradition of long-standing to finally have somethin extraordinary to its credit, other than the best third baseman ever to play the game, and one of the 2 or 3 best left-handed pitchers.
posted by joe valente | 2:28 AM
3 Comments:
Are we definitely prepared to say that Ryan Howard's home run total is not drug-aided? MLB's testing regime is so lax I'm not sure I can go there yet...
After tonight's games, Jeter's at .344 and Mauer is at .346
The way Jeter's hitting these days, he should pass him this week. If he wins the batting title, will he win MVP?
1. Having followed Howard's career at Reading, I am prepared to vouch that he is not a steroid cheater. He never went through some abnormal body change, as Ortiz did between Minnesota and Massachusetts, and his hear has always fit nicely inside his batting helmet, unlike the aforementioned Mr. Ortiz, Bonds, McGuire, Sosa etc.
2. Yes Citizens Bank is a bandbox, butr Maris was a left handed hitter in Yankee Stadium when the right field line was less than three hundred feet, less than 295 in fact, and the drop off to right center was not as steep as today. For a lefty pull hitter like Maris (or Ruth), Yankee Stadium provided the ultimate bandbox. On the other hand, you are certainly right about stadium size in general. They are much smaller today, which means Howard plays in friendlier confines on the road.
3. The batting title question is really interesting. The Jeter haters believe he's all intangibles, no substance, and so a batting title would have to undercut their position, well, substantially. There is enough support out there for Jeter as MV that I believe a batting title would seal the deal. But I'm not certain it's necessary. Jeter will likely finish 1 or 2 in batting, in the top 5 in OBP, garner 100 RBI's as a table setter, finish in or near the top 5 in stolen bases, finish with a top 5 fielding percentage, secure 200 hits (again), score 100 runs (again), and be the leader of the team that will likely, when the season is done, have the best record in the AL, if not the majors. there is in other words a tremendous amount of statistical evidence for Jeter's excellence this year, whether or not he leads in hitting. What's more, there is the question of who else. Ortiz seems done because with the Sox out of the race he won't be able to overcome the central argument against his candidacy: he doesn't actually play the game of baseball. It is not clear who is the MVP of the Twins, Morneau or Mauer, so it seems unlikely that either one could rise to the top of the league. That leaves Jermaine Dye. But the White Sox might not be in the playoffs (right now, I'd say no) and Dye has stumbled into a slump at the worst possible time. Finally, there is the halo effect of career success: in a close race, I think someone like Jeter, whose been a valuable player year in and out has an advantage over someone like Morneau or Mauer, and certainly over a glorified journeyman like Dye. Particularly since Jeter plays a glamor position.
Here's another question though: is it possible that Robby Cano will have enough at bats by season's end to qualify for the batting title. If so, I wouldn't bet against him. He has that ability to get 4 or 5 hits in a single game, and if he does that at the end of a close race, it could push him over the top. I'll tell you this: if Cano could ever improve his plate discipline, learn to take 100 walks a year, he could hit 400 someday.
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