How Good

is D-Mat anyway? There seems to be a widespread perception that he will be a stone ace. Maybe so. The view seems to be based on 3 things primarily: an assessment of his stuff, which is not only electric, but various; his MVP at the World Baseball Classic; his record of last year 17-5, 2.13 ERA. I'm not sure that the MVP means that much, other than people utterly unfamilar with his stuff have trouble hitting it. The scouting reports do merit serious consideration, and his most recent season was a Pedro-esque performance. On the other hand, it was his 8th year in the Japanese major leagues, and by far his best season. His lifetime stats are less impressive, 108-60, which over the period averages out to about 13.5 and 7.5 per year, good certainly, but more like Mussina than Martinez. His lifetime ERA is 2.95, which would be very good if he was posting it in the NL and terrific if it was the AL. But as the last American tour proved, Japanese baseball is not major league baseball. I would venture to say its more like AAA baseball. And if there is a one run differential between NL and AL era's owing to the superiority of the latter offensively, and of course the DH, which Japan wisely eschews, then there is probably a differential between an ERA in Japan and one in the NL. So what is the total equivalence, atleast 4.00 for his career, probably more like 4.25. Of course he's better now than when he started (right out of high school--last year's AL equivalency would probably be just over 3.00, which is excellent--but there has not been a steady improvement over the years; it's been up and down between great, very good and good. How will he fare over the course of a season against the bigger stronger hitters in the American League? This goes in turn to the question of his stuff. Obviously it's great, which is to say MArtinez level, but then so is Josh Beckett's. That is only half the battle; the other half is control in the zone. The word is, from the same scouting sources that D-Mat tends to pitch up in the zone; that has gotten him inot whatever incidental trouble he has encountered in Japan. How will it play against bigger, stronger hitters more accustomed to mid-nineties fastballs than the Japanese hitters are. One further monkey wrench. D-Mat has evidently spent his career pitching every 6th rather than every 5th. That is why he has totalled roughly 1425 innings over an 8 year career, despite never losing serious time to injury. How will the added work, or pace of work, affect his velocity, and how will that in turn affect his ability to retire more formidable line-ups, without a nine hole in sight?

It is interesting that the Yankees look at Igawa, who has been a star in Japan as a back of the rotation guy, in effect their 5th starter. On that reasoning, D-Mat, a mega star in Japan should probably be projected as a middle of the rotation starter in the Al, better say than Wakefield, Beckett or Lester, but not another Schilling. As good perhaps, to be generous, as a Wang or a Pettitte in his prime, but not a Clemens (will his prime never end?) or a Martinez or a Santana or, before the injury, a Loriano. As good perhaps as Mussina recently, but not as Mussina at his best. With Lester a question mark, with Papelbon a double question mark (how good a starter, how reliable the shoulder, with Schilling a question mark (does the decline of the past two years continue), D-Mat is unquestionably a huge addition to the Boston staff, adn one that makes them a prohibitive favorite to join the Yankees in the playoffs (the Twins have gotten weaker, the White Sox have gotten weaker, the A's have gotten weaker, neithe the Angels nor Cleveland has as yet sufficiently strengthed), but having said that he too is something of a question mark. I think there is virtually no chance he'll be a bust, no Irabu or even a Nomo, despite the comparatively dismal record Japanese pitchers have fashioned in the states. But the chances of his success in Japan fully translating the way an Ichiro's or even a Hideki's has, hardly amount to a lock.