FEARLESS PREDICTIONS
The only series I have no real sense of an outcome is the Yanks-Indians. I feel strongly that the Phillies will beat the Rockies in 4, the Cubs will take the D-Backs in 5 (on the strength of the Lou factor) and the Angels will dispose of Boston in 4 (the Angels are banged up, but Escobar seems recovered and Boston has no starting pitching after Beckett.)
Boy, looking back on these, I wished I had picked the Indians! I'm so consistently wrong, it would have augured well.
Boy, looking back on these, I wished I had picked the Indians! I'm so consistently wrong, it would have augured well.
posted by joe valente | 11:51 AM
4 Comments:
I'll take Phils in 5, Cubs in 4, Red Sox in 4, and...also no clue about yankee series.
But we all iknow e need to root for the Ynaks to go down Thursday--as the NY Times today reminds us, in the last 7 postseasons, when the Yankees win game 1 of the division series, they lose the series.
This pattern has some relevance to other series as well, though not as consistent; in 03 they lost game one of the ALCS, and won the series; in 04, of course, they won game 1 and lost the series. But going against that trend is: in 01 they won game 1 of the alcs and won the series; and the lost game 1 in both the 01 and 03 world series and lost the series as well.
As Joe V has noted, the team seems to respond well to humiliation. So: how about a 10-0, 90 pitch complete game, 2 hit shutout from Sabathia to get them fired up? we all know what happens when they win game 1--the team gets caught up in the hype and goes on autopilot.
ugggh. I know I've said almost this exact same thing before on this space: but what the fuck about when the angles play the red sox? why does this team that is so fearless and so proficient and relentless against the yankees (and I know they are banged up, but still....) turn to jelly against the Red Sox, especially at Fenway?
I hope Joe V is right, but I'm think a repeat of the 04 division series here--a Sox sweep.
Well, of course, it could turn out a Sox sweep, but for the record, when I picked the Angels in 4, I assumed a Sox win in game one. My thought was Escobar beats Dice-hype in Game 2, and I still think he will. Then I have Weaver over Schilling in Anaheim in game 3. The trickiest and most unreliable part of my prediction involves lackey shutting down the Sox at home for the Angels to escape with a low run victory. Obviously, the series now completely hinges on tomorrow night's game, but I always thought it would. If LA had somehow won last night, I think *they* would have swept.
As for them being banged up, I really think that's just an excuse the journalists have prepared for them. Yes they lose centerfield defense in Matthews, but come on he's a 252 hitter on a team full of 300 hitters.Yes they lose Guerrero's arm in right, but his range has beenm down the second half of the season and his bat has still been fine. If they don't score runs, injuries won't be the reason.
As for the Yankee series, I have a somewhat different take. I come at it from the perspective of the Indians' psyche rather than NY's. If the Yankees were able to beat Sabathia, then the entire season for the Tribe would suddenly fall on the shoulders of Carmona, who, as a reliever last year, proved he can't handle too much pressure. I think he'd blow up and the Yankees would head home up 2 and in great position. I think Cleveland tonight is in the position Boston was in last night: they *need* to win for them to compete in the series as a whole. Strangely, the series is really backloaded for the Yanks. They could lose games one and two and easily come back to beat Westbrook and Byrd at the stadium, forcing a game 5 with this same matchup.
I wanted to add one last point about my prediction of the Boston-LA series. Much has been made, correctly I think, of LA's style not working at Fenway. The wide open running game requires bigger dimensions, Boston's pitchers, knowing LA's power deficiencies can afford to be more fearless etc. That is why, in my view, it was a huge mistake for Suidward Tentacles to pitch Dice-BB in Game 2. He would have been better off with thew Tub o' guts, who whatever his problems still has his control. The Angels offense needs basrunners and if any Boston pitcher is simply going to hand them to the Angels it will be Matszusake. The Angels then, on this reading get to face Schilling and even Beckett in their own park, which is built for their style of play. If the series comes back to Fenway, where the Angels sicken, they get to face
Dice-(wal)K again, and he might just be the cure. If my prediction proves correct, Francona's rotation will probably be the reason.
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