Is a Puzzlement
The Yankees clarified one of their puzzling areas tonight by starting Matsui in left field and sitting Melky Cabrera, for the 2nd time in the last three games. The Melkman will not be starting in the playoffs, at least not with any regularity. I have stated ad nauseum why I believe this decision is misguided and will only add 2 things here. 1) Matsui's performance since his return has supplied as solid evidence as one could find that he can indeed flourish in the DH role, making the optimum platoon of Giambi and Sheffield (neither one of whom is hitting just now) relatively cost free 2) Slow Joe has once again given us the rope to hang him, rhwetorically speaking, if they don't win this thing.
The puzzle facing the Twins is more intriguing and less open to easy solution. Santan is scheduled to pitch Sunday for his 20th, a consummation devoutly to be postponed, since the Twins would like to open the playoffs with him on the mound. But what if the Central Division is still on the line at that point/ What if by pitching Santana on Sunday, they can open a five game set against Oakland at home, pitching Santana once, if necessary, rather than opening against the Yankees on the road, with santana available for 2 starts, but only if both are on the road. Remember Santana's home record is a Koufaxian 12-0; his road recodr is an ordinary 7-5. What makes playing for the division so tempting is that the Twins are such a young team, with virtually no playoff experience. Getting their feet wet in the Metrodome against the lesser opponent rather than in the stadium against the legends could be the difference between an early exit and a World Title. What if they closed the A's out quickly, Garza to Bonzer to Radke? They might at that point be able to risk a 1-4-7 split with Santana in the ALCS (although again, they would only get one game at home). Finally, for now, wouldn't the Twins, who have a miserable postseason record against the Yankees under Gardenhire, like to give the Tigers the opportunity to help them out. A series against the Yankees, in which the Tigers prevailed, but only by using both Verlander and Bonderman twice, would set the Twins up nicely to go to the Series. In sum, the Yanks have good reason not to want to play the Twins at all; I have come to believe that BGW was closer to the mark in his assessment of the Twins offensive potential than I was--the return of Tori Hunter has given them the fourth bat in sequence, a la Thome, Konerko, Dye Crede, that makes a team dangerous. But the Twins have good reason not to want to play the Yankees as well. Whoever Torre starts, if the Yankees are hitting they are the most menacing team out there, certainly more so than the A's, whose low average big men--Swisher, Thomas, Chavez--are a recipe for October disaster. The difference is that at this point the Yankees have no say in who they play; the A's will not make up 5 games with 6 to play, so the Yanks get the wild card and get them at home. Where the Twins play may well be a matter of the strategy they choose, which is itself based on an exquisitely difficult cost-benefit analysis.
Of course the other way to look at all of this is through the lens of how the wild card is next to the DH the most fucked up innovation is baseball, because it gives people reasons not to try to win--not to try and win their "league" and hence not to try to win the particulkar games necessary to do so.
Our next puzzle involves the Sox. Manny wants out, again, and since he went AWOL after the massacre--literally among the walking wounded--the Sox are prepared, they say, to give him what he wants. In other words, we are back to 3 years ago, when Manny being Manny and Manny being a cancer were synonymous and the Sox put him on waivers in the hope, vain as it turned out of offing his salary. Many people, including the Yankees kicked themselves for not taking that opportunity in the years that followed, and while the Yanks will be given no trade option by their rivals, the question about Manny has renewed itself for other teams. Just when you thought he must be worth the drama, just when he seemed not disturbed or self-indulgent, but zany and playful, a holy fool of the diamond, he goes and backs out of September baseball because the road to the playoffs seemed especially rough. So fi you are the Phillies or the Mets, or the Angels, do you take a chance on Manny? Soemthing for the off-season.
For the present, I'm wondering, in our last puzzle, how did the Astros get the Cards' lead down to one and 1/2 with 5 to play? More importantly, Oswalt, Clemens, and a revived Andy Pettite. If the Astros pull off this miracle come back, and I put the odds at just about even, I would argue that they and not the Mets--with a battered and ineffective Pedro, and old Tom Glavine, who was alousy October pitcher even when Young, and Steve Trachsel for Chrissake--the Astros are the favorite to win the NL pennant.
The puzzle facing the Twins is more intriguing and less open to easy solution. Santan is scheduled to pitch Sunday for his 20th, a consummation devoutly to be postponed, since the Twins would like to open the playoffs with him on the mound. But what if the Central Division is still on the line at that point/ What if by pitching Santana on Sunday, they can open a five game set against Oakland at home, pitching Santana once, if necessary, rather than opening against the Yankees on the road, with santana available for 2 starts, but only if both are on the road. Remember Santana's home record is a Koufaxian 12-0; his road recodr is an ordinary 7-5. What makes playing for the division so tempting is that the Twins are such a young team, with virtually no playoff experience. Getting their feet wet in the Metrodome against the lesser opponent rather than in the stadium against the legends could be the difference between an early exit and a World Title. What if they closed the A's out quickly, Garza to Bonzer to Radke? They might at that point be able to risk a 1-4-7 split with Santana in the ALCS (although again, they would only get one game at home). Finally, for now, wouldn't the Twins, who have a miserable postseason record against the Yankees under Gardenhire, like to give the Tigers the opportunity to help them out. A series against the Yankees, in which the Tigers prevailed, but only by using both Verlander and Bonderman twice, would set the Twins up nicely to go to the Series. In sum, the Yanks have good reason not to want to play the Twins at all; I have come to believe that BGW was closer to the mark in his assessment of the Twins offensive potential than I was--the return of Tori Hunter has given them the fourth bat in sequence, a la Thome, Konerko, Dye Crede, that makes a team dangerous. But the Twins have good reason not to want to play the Yankees as well. Whoever Torre starts, if the Yankees are hitting they are the most menacing team out there, certainly more so than the A's, whose low average big men--Swisher, Thomas, Chavez--are a recipe for October disaster. The difference is that at this point the Yankees have no say in who they play; the A's will not make up 5 games with 6 to play, so the Yanks get the wild card and get them at home. Where the Twins play may well be a matter of the strategy they choose, which is itself based on an exquisitely difficult cost-benefit analysis.
Of course the other way to look at all of this is through the lens of how the wild card is next to the DH the most fucked up innovation is baseball, because it gives people reasons not to try to win--not to try and win their "league" and hence not to try to win the particulkar games necessary to do so.
Our next puzzle involves the Sox. Manny wants out, again, and since he went AWOL after the massacre--literally among the walking wounded--the Sox are prepared, they say, to give him what he wants. In other words, we are back to 3 years ago, when Manny being Manny and Manny being a cancer were synonymous and the Sox put him on waivers in the hope, vain as it turned out of offing his salary. Many people, including the Yankees kicked themselves for not taking that opportunity in the years that followed, and while the Yanks will be given no trade option by their rivals, the question about Manny has renewed itself for other teams. Just when you thought he must be worth the drama, just when he seemed not disturbed or self-indulgent, but zany and playful, a holy fool of the diamond, he goes and backs out of September baseball because the road to the playoffs seemed especially rough. So fi you are the Phillies or the Mets, or the Angels, do you take a chance on Manny? Soemthing for the off-season.
For the present, I'm wondering, in our last puzzle, how did the Astros get the Cards' lead down to one and 1/2 with 5 to play? More importantly, Oswalt, Clemens, and a revived Andy Pettite. If the Astros pull off this miracle come back, and I put the odds at just about even, I would argue that they and not the Mets--with a battered and ineffective Pedro, and old Tom Glavine, who was alousy October pitcher even when Young, and Steve Trachsel for Chrissake--the Astros are the favorite to win the NL pennant.
posted by joe valente | 12:40 AM
2 Comments:
I completely agree with both your prognosis as to what the roster will be and with your sense of what it should be--except on one particular. And on that particular I guess I could only call my dissent vehement. I believe Lidle should be on the roster, and if not Lidle, Villone, instead of Meyers, whom I feel is the single worst pitcher on the Yankees' 40 man. Hell, after that last Sunday night game with Boston, I would have studiously ignored the latitude offered me by the September rules and designated his ass for assignment, to whatever circle of hell Dante reserves for the criminally incompetent. As badly as you never want to see the Astros again, that's how badly I never want to see Meyers pitching in pinstipes again.
On the wild card issue: I wouldn't mind the wild card if they just went ahead and re-seeded after the regular season, regardless of the divisions. Look, MLB has already pretty much destroyed the whole idea of divisions (by making 3 instead of 2, and by introducing the wild card). If you have the wild card, you've already downgraded the importance of divisions. There's no reason not to let #1 play #4 and #2 play #3 regardless of which division they're in.
Post a Comment
<< Home