Good News, Bad News
The good news is the Yanks clinched home field for as far as they go in the postseason. I'm not at all certain the Yankees play better at home than on the road, but almost everyone else does, the Twins in particular, so it turns out a huge relative advantage. As I noted previously, Santana is an entirely different pitcher at home, and now if the Twins plan on pitching him twice on full rest, both starts will have to come in the stadium.
The bad news is that it looks more and more likely that it will be the Twins rather than the Tigers in round 1. They are still even, but a tie goes to the Tigers and they can't keep losing to KC, can they? The only consolation is that if Johnson's back keeps him out of round 1, better he miss the Twins than the Tigers, whom he totally dominates.
Johnson's herniated disk qualifies as bad news, although its only news in the sense that he had kept his pain a secret through these last 3 horrendous starts. It might turn out good news if the epidural works and he returns to August form. It might also turn out good news if he doesn't pitch at all as a result. Johnson was awful in last year's playoffs, and every spring he starts off badly, everyone says he's a warm weather pitcher and each year he improves, pretty dramatically, in July and August. But of course it's cold in October and so it makes sense that unless he's pitching in a place like Arizona (where all of his success came in the 2001 series) or indoors, he will likely revert to the bad old RJ of April and May. Wright's had a couple of good starts in a row, and Lidle's first start coming off his blister problem was very strong, so we might just be better off with them anyway, despite the luster of Johnson's rep. I mean did any of us feel that confident that he could avoid a playoff meltdown?
The American league generally received good news in the form of Martinez's torn calf, which makes El Duque the Ace of a geriatric Met's staff (Glavine, Trachsel, what was John Franco busy?) The weakness of National league lineups might be such that they can still get to the Series, but unless they face the A's, I think their gonna get torched at that point. Meanwhile, the Cards moved 2 games up in the loss column on the Astros, and while the starting pitching of Houston is such that they can conceivably beat everyone in a 7 game series, the starting pitching of the Cards is such that they can't conceivably beat anyone, at least not anyone in the AL. Between these 2 developments, the chances of the victor coming out of the AL, already pretty high, become much higher.
I'm not sure whether this is good news or bad news, but it's important news. Perhaps the unsung key to the Yankees postseason performance is the play of Johnny Damon. Damon, we shouldn't forget, is a really streaky hitter. In 2004, he was just awful down the stretch and into the playoffs. The story of Boston's historic turnaround is in part the story of his turnaround. He has been slumping quite badly of late. Having pushed his batting average up to an even 300 a couple of weeks back, he has dropped to 286, a really steep decline given the brevity of the span and the number of at-bats a leadoff hitter has banked by this point of the season. I'm not certain what kind of news this is because Damon never of course stays in these sloughs permanently and when he does come out, he's usually red hot. So it remains to be seen when that happens. Has he gotten this nastiness out of the way, and is he now ready to go on a tear, just in time; or will he come out of it next April, after his troubles contribute to a yankees' defeat. Like I said, I don't know the answer, but we should recognize the importance of the question: the story of Damon's postseason might well tell the tale of the Yankees'.
The last bit of bad news is that Melky, whose avg. has been stedily between 285 and 290 all July and August has dropped down to 278 in the past week, i.e. under the conditions of part time play. Some players are effective as subs and regulars in equal measure, many are not, and as it becomes clear that slow Joe is going to start his lumber, it also begins to look as if the effect on Melky will seem, decptively in my view, to justify that decision. Especially since the pundits, like the manager, don't really get the importance of defense.
Last note. I was watching Home Town Heros on ESPN and Seaver was the Mets'. A baseball historian name of Shoulders concluded the segment by saying that he felt Seaver really doesn't get his due, that people don't talk about him as one of the all-timers, as they should. I agree, but that's because people are obsessed with numbers and shows like this one don't bother to trot out that incredible statistic, that Seaver is the only pitcher since the WWI era, the only hurler ever to throw a live ball for 300 wins and an under 3.00 ERA. Give people that stat and they'll praise him as much as you want. After all they put Eddie Murray in the Hall of Fame solely on account of his (far less impressive) numbers laboriously amassed over a 1/4 century. Or, of greater relevance, neither Johnny Bench, perhaps the greatest catcher in basebaall history, nor Frank Robinson, the only man to win an MVP in both leagues and arguably the best right fielder in baseball between 1959-1965, when both Aaron and Clemente were in their prime, was the home town hero for the Reds. You guessed it, Pete Rose won the honor, not because he was nearly as good as either one of them but because 4,100 and something is a really high number.
The bad news is that it looks more and more likely that it will be the Twins rather than the Tigers in round 1. They are still even, but a tie goes to the Tigers and they can't keep losing to KC, can they? The only consolation is that if Johnson's back keeps him out of round 1, better he miss the Twins than the Tigers, whom he totally dominates.
Johnson's herniated disk qualifies as bad news, although its only news in the sense that he had kept his pain a secret through these last 3 horrendous starts. It might turn out good news if the epidural works and he returns to August form. It might also turn out good news if he doesn't pitch at all as a result. Johnson was awful in last year's playoffs, and every spring he starts off badly, everyone says he's a warm weather pitcher and each year he improves, pretty dramatically, in July and August. But of course it's cold in October and so it makes sense that unless he's pitching in a place like Arizona (where all of his success came in the 2001 series) or indoors, he will likely revert to the bad old RJ of April and May. Wright's had a couple of good starts in a row, and Lidle's first start coming off his blister problem was very strong, so we might just be better off with them anyway, despite the luster of Johnson's rep. I mean did any of us feel that confident that he could avoid a playoff meltdown?
The American league generally received good news in the form of Martinez's torn calf, which makes El Duque the Ace of a geriatric Met's staff (Glavine, Trachsel, what was John Franco busy?) The weakness of National league lineups might be such that they can still get to the Series, but unless they face the A's, I think their gonna get torched at that point. Meanwhile, the Cards moved 2 games up in the loss column on the Astros, and while the starting pitching of Houston is such that they can conceivably beat everyone in a 7 game series, the starting pitching of the Cards is such that they can't conceivably beat anyone, at least not anyone in the AL. Between these 2 developments, the chances of the victor coming out of the AL, already pretty high, become much higher.
I'm not sure whether this is good news or bad news, but it's important news. Perhaps the unsung key to the Yankees postseason performance is the play of Johnny Damon. Damon, we shouldn't forget, is a really streaky hitter. In 2004, he was just awful down the stretch and into the playoffs. The story of Boston's historic turnaround is in part the story of his turnaround. He has been slumping quite badly of late. Having pushed his batting average up to an even 300 a couple of weeks back, he has dropped to 286, a really steep decline given the brevity of the span and the number of at-bats a leadoff hitter has banked by this point of the season. I'm not certain what kind of news this is because Damon never of course stays in these sloughs permanently and when he does come out, he's usually red hot. So it remains to be seen when that happens. Has he gotten this nastiness out of the way, and is he now ready to go on a tear, just in time; or will he come out of it next April, after his troubles contribute to a yankees' defeat. Like I said, I don't know the answer, but we should recognize the importance of the question: the story of Damon's postseason might well tell the tale of the Yankees'.
The last bit of bad news is that Melky, whose avg. has been stedily between 285 and 290 all July and August has dropped down to 278 in the past week, i.e. under the conditions of part time play. Some players are effective as subs and regulars in equal measure, many are not, and as it becomes clear that slow Joe is going to start his lumber, it also begins to look as if the effect on Melky will seem, decptively in my view, to justify that decision. Especially since the pundits, like the manager, don't really get the importance of defense.
Last note. I was watching Home Town Heros on ESPN and Seaver was the Mets'. A baseball historian name of Shoulders concluded the segment by saying that he felt Seaver really doesn't get his due, that people don't talk about him as one of the all-timers, as they should. I agree, but that's because people are obsessed with numbers and shows like this one don't bother to trot out that incredible statistic, that Seaver is the only pitcher since the WWI era, the only hurler ever to throw a live ball for 300 wins and an under 3.00 ERA. Give people that stat and they'll praise him as much as you want. After all they put Eddie Murray in the Hall of Fame solely on account of his (far less impressive) numbers laboriously amassed over a 1/4 century. Or, of greater relevance, neither Johnny Bench, perhaps the greatest catcher in basebaall history, nor Frank Robinson, the only man to win an MVP in both leagues and arguably the best right fielder in baseball between 1959-1965, when both Aaron and Clemente were in their prime, was the home town hero for the Reds. You guessed it, Pete Rose won the honor, not because he was nearly as good as either one of them but because 4,100 and something is a really high number.
posted by joe valente | 1:55 AM
1 Comments:
I saw that Home Town Heroes segment last night and I felt pretty damn smart after reading this blog.
Second, I was listening to Mike and the Mad Dog yesterday in the car. First they did a hilarious segment mocking John Sterling, whom they loathe just as much as I do, so that was enjoyable. Second, they were highly critical of Torre for going away from defense by benching Melky and for planning to start Johnson in game 3 rather than Mussina, who has always started game 3. I hadn't really thought about the fact that Mussina has been a consistent game 3 starter for Torre. Is that right? But I guess the news about Johnson explains it somewhat, trying to get him an extra days rest.
To me, the best news yesterday was Shef's home run. If he's really back--and boy, looking at that hit on SportsCenter, it was definitely the old Shef hack--this is clearly the most dangerous lineup I've ever seen. Certainly pitching and defense, so the saying goes, "beats good hitting," but if at a certain point the hitting gets so good that it can make up for some pitching/defense problems. And that's what we have to hope for, I think: that the pitching and defense is good enough and holds the other team down to 4 runs a game, and we score 5 or more. Certainly possible with this lineup...
Post a Comment
<< Home